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In This Issue
December 2008 US T-Bonds: Bulls and Bears Struggle for Control
New: International Economic Calendar
Economic Reports and Expiration Notices
GOOD TRADING!
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Newsletter Archives
December 30, 2008
by Jim Wyckoff
December U.S. Treasury bond futures have seen choppy and volatile trading in recent weeks, as the financial market crisis worldwide plays out. On days when the U.S. stock market is very strong, the bond market bears make headway with lower T-Bond prices. When stocks are lower, the bond market bulls generally see solid price gains in T-Bonds. See on the daily bar chart for December T-Bonds that both the bulls and the bears have some technical ammunition. For the bears, T-Bonds are in a choppy downtrend from the September contract high. For the T-Bond bulls, see on the daily chart that recent price action has formed a bullish pennant pattern. Bulls and bears are doing heated battle at present, with neither making a lot of headway. A push in December T-Bonds below the solid longer-term technical support level seen on the chart would provide the bears with fresh downside near-term technical momentum. A push in T-Bonds above the resistance level seen on the chart would provide the bulls with some fresh upside near-term technical momentum.
Jim has an EXCELLENT daily newsletter where he reviews different markets, alerts you for potential trades and much more. Included is his great bi-weekly newsletter with charts and a little longer term outlook. We recommend checking out his website, educational CDROM, and services at JimWyckoff.com
A new feature from MF Global Research: important upcoming global economic events.
| DATE | CTY | PERIOD | CST | RELEASE | MED | PREV |
| 10/30 | CH | SEP | Govt Expenditure (Yuan) | - - | 403.6B | |
| THU | CH | SEP | Govt Revenue (Yuan) | - - | 384.8B | |
| GE | SEP | 2:00 | ILO Unemployment Rate | 7.20% | 7.20% | |
| FR | SEP | 2:45 | Producer Prices (MoM) | -0.20% | -0.50% | |
| FR | SEP | 2:45 | Producer Prices (YoY) | 6.40% | 6.90% | |
| IT | 30-Oct | 3:30 | Italy Hosts Conference With Libya | |||
| GE | OCT | 3:55 | Unemployment Rate (s.a) | 7.60% | 7.60% | |
| GE | OCT | 3:55 | Unemployment Change (000's) | -10K | -29K | |
| GE | 30-Oct | 3:55 | Germany Publishes October Unemployment Figures | |||
| FR | OCT | 4:00 | Bloomberg France Retail PMI | 49 | 50.5 | |
| GE | OCT | 4:00 | Bloomberg Germany Retail PMI | - - | 44.6 | |
| IT | OCT | 4:00 | Bloomberg Italy Retail PMI | - - | 42.8 | |
| IT | AUG | 4:00 | Large Company Empl. Nsa (YoY) | - - | -0.30% | |
| GE | 30-Oct | 4:03 | Kirch Suit Over Deutsche Bank AGM Heard by German High Court | |||
| GE | 30-Oct | 4:30 | German Labor Minister Scholz Briefs Press on Jobless Outlook | |||
| IT | 30-Oct | 4:30 | Italian Report on Immigration Released by Caritas | |||
| SA | SEP | 4:30 | PPI (MoM) | -1.80% | 0.50% | |
| SA | SEP | 4:30 | PPI (YoY) | 18.10% | 19.10% | |
| GE | 30-Oct | 4:45 | Steinbrueck Gives Speech on Globalization, Economic `Fairness' | |||
| BZ | OCT | 5:00 | FGV Inflation IGP-M (MoM) | 0.96% | 0.11% | |
| IT | 30-Oct | 5:00 | Italy to Sell Floating Due 2015 Notes | |||
| IT | 30-Oct | 5:00 | Italy to Sell 4.25% Bonds due 2011 | |||
| IT | 30-Oct | 5:00 | Italy to Sell 4.50% Bonds due 2019 | |||
| UK | 28-Oct | 5:30 | U.K. to Sell GBP4 Bln 4% 2016 Bonds *Add'l | |||
| CA | SEP | 7:30 | Industrial Product Price MoM | -0.50% | -0.20% | |
| CA | SEP | 7:30 | Raw Materials Price Index MoM | -5.00% | -7.70% | |
| IN | 18-Oct | 7:30 | Wholesale Price Index YoY | 10.80% | 11.07% | |
| GE | 30-Oct | 8:30 | Germany's Merkel, Prime Minister Brown Brief Press in London | |||
| GE | 30-Oct | 9:00 | IG Metall, Employers Continue Pay Talks in Baden-Wuerttemberg | |||
| BZ | SEP | Central Govt Budget | - - | $6.28B | ||
| MX | SEP | 15:30 | Mexican Public Balance | P25.000B | P34.364B | |
| SK | NOV | 16:00 | Business Survey- Manufacturing | - - | 78 | |
| SK | NOV | 16:00 | Business Survey- Non-Manufacturing | - - | 75 | |
| IT | 30-Oct | Berlusconi Visits San Giuliano di Puglia | ||||
| JN | SEP | 18:30 | Jobless Rate | 4.20% | 4.20% | |
| JN | SEP | 18:30 | Job-To-Applicant Ratio | 0.85 | 0.86 | |
| JN | SEP | 18:30 | Household Spending (YoY) | -4.00% | -4.00% | |
| JN | OCT | 18:30 | Tokyo CPI YoY | 1.30% | 1.40% | |
| JN | OCT | 18:30 | Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY | 1.50% | 1.70% | |
| JN | OCT | 18:30 | Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY | 0.50% | 0.50% | |
| JN | SEP | 18:30 | Natl CPI YoY | 2.10% | 2.10% | |
| JN | SEP | 18:30 | Natl CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY | 2.30% | 2.40% | |
| JN | SEP | 18:30 | Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY | 0.20% | 0.00% | |
| JN | 30-Oct | 19:00 | BOJ to Hold Regular Policy Board Meeting | |||
| JN | 30-Oct | BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting | ||||
| UK | OCT | 19:01 | GfK Consumer Confidence Survey | -36 | -32 | |
| AU | SEP | 19:30 | Private Sector Credit MoM% | 0.40% | 0.50% | |
| AU | SEP | 19:30 | Private Sector Credit YoY% | 9.60% | 10.50% | |
| AU | 30-Oct | 19:30 | Assistant RBA Governor Debelle Gives Speech in Melbourne | |||
| AU | SEP | 20:00 | HIA New Home Sales (MoM) | - - | -1.30% | |
| JN | 31-Oct | BOJ Target Rate | 0.50% | 0.50% | ||
| SK | SEP | 23:30 | Service Industry Output YoY | - - | 1.60% | |
| SK | SEP | 23:30 | Industrial Production Mfg(YoY) | - - | 1.90% | |
| SK | SEP | 23:30 | Industrial Production (MoM) | - - | -2.20% | |
| SK | SEP | 23:30 | Industrial Production (YoY) | - - | 1.90% | |
| SK | SEP | 23:30 | Leading Index (YoY) | - - | -0.30% | |
| 10/31 | JN | SEP | 0:00 | Housing Starts (YoY) | 52.00% | 53.60% |
| FRI | JN | SEP | 0:00 | Annualized Housing Starts | 1.109M | 1.130M |
| JN | SEP | 0:00 | Construction Orders (YoY) | - - | -0.30% | |
| JN | 31-Oct | 1:00 | BOJ to Release Semi-Annual Economic Outlook Report | |||
| GE | SEP | 2:00 | Retail Sales (MoM) | -1.00% | 3.10% | |
| GE | SEP | 2:00 | Retail Sales (YoY) | - - | -3.00% | |
| IT | SEP | 4:00 | PPI (MoM) | -0.10% | -0.20% | |
| IT | SEP | 4:00 | PPI (YoY) | 7.60% | 8.20% | |
| IT | OCT P | 5:00 | CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM) | 0.00% | -0.30% | |
| IT | OCT P | 5:00 | CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) | 3.50% | 3.80% | |
| IT | OCT P | 5:00 | CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) | 0.40% | 0.50% | |
| IT | OCT P | 5:00 | CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) | 3.60% | 3.90% | |
| UK | 31-Oct | 6:10 | U.K. to Sell GBP400 Mln 28-Day Bills | |||
| UK | 31-Oct | 6:10 | U.K. to Sell GBP500 Mln 91-Day Bills | |||
| UK | 31-Oct | 6:10 | U.K. to Sell GBP600 Mln 183-Day Bills | |||
| SA | SEP | 7:00 | Trade Balance (Rand) | -4.0B | -5.1B | |
| GE | 31-Oct | 7:15 | Merkel Visits Federal Labor Agency in Nuremberg | |||
| BZ | SEP | 7:30 | Nominal Budget Balance | - - | -R$2.34 | |
| BZ | SEP | 7:30 | Primary Budget Balance | R$6.1 | R$10.2 | |
| BZ | SEP | 7:30 | Net Debt % GDP | 39.00% | 40.50% | |
| CA | AUG | 7:30 | Gross Domestic Product MoM | -0.40% | 0.70% | |
| SA | OCT | SACOB Business Confidence | - - | 89.9 | ||
| CH | OCT | 20:00 | PMI Manufacturing | - - | 51.2 | |
| 11/1 | IN | 1-Nov | 0:30 | India October ABN Amro Manufacturing PMI (Table) | ||
| SAT | ||||||
| 02-04 NOV | SK | OCT | Foreign Exchange Reserve USD | - - | $239.67B | |
| UK | 6-Nov | U.K. Plans to Sell 1.25% I/L 2055 Bonds in Mini Tender | ||||
| CH | OCT | CLSA Manufacturing PMI | - - | 47.7 | ||
| 11/2 | NZ | 3Q | 15:45 | Labor Cost Private Sector QoQ | - - | 0.80% |
| SUN | NZ | 3Q | 15:45 | Private Wages ex Overtime QoQ | - - | 0.80% |
| NZ | 3Q | 15:45 | Average Hourly Earnings QoQ | - - | 2.00% | |
| AU | OCT | 16:30 | AiG Performance of Mfg Index | - - | 47.2 | |
| AU | OCT | 17:30 | TD Securities Inflation MoM% | - - | 0.40% | |
| AU | OCT | 17:30 | TD Securities Inflation YoY% | - - | 4.50% | |
| AU | OCT | 18:30 | ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) | - - | -1.40% | |
| AU | 3Q | 18:30 | House Price Index QoQ | - - | -0.30% | |
| AU | SEP | 18:30 | Retail Sales Trend (MoM) | - - | 0.30% | |
| AU | SEP | 18:30 | Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) | - - | - - | |
| AU | 3Q | 18:30 | House Price Index YoY | - - | 8.20% | |
| AU | 3Q | 18:30 | Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) | - - | -0.60% | |
| SK | OCT P | 19:00 | Ext Trade - Export (YoY) | - - | 28.20% | |
| SK | OCT P | 19:00 | Ext Trade - Export in US$ Mln | - - | 37591 | |
| SK | OCT P | 19:00 | Ext Trade - Imports (YoY) | - - | 45.80% | |
| SK | OCT P | 19:00 | Ext Trade - Import in US$ Mln | - - | 39650 | |
| SK | OCT | 22:30 | Consumer Price Index (MoM) | - - | 0.10% | |
| SK | OCT | 22:30 | Consumer Price Index (YoY) | - - | 5.10% | |
| AU | OCT | 23:30 | RBA Commodity Index SDR YoY% | - - | 43.30% | |
| 03-07 NOV | UK | OCT | HBOS Plc house prices sa (MoM) | - - | -1.30% | |
| UK | OCT | HBOS House Price 3Mths/Year | - - | -12.40% | ||
| BZ | OCT | Vehicle Sales (Anfavea) | - - | 268686 | ||
| BZ | OCT | Vehicle Exports (Anfavea) | - - | 58588 | ||
| BZ | OCT | Vehicle Production (Anfavea) | - - | 298367 | ||
| GE | 6-Nov | Hesse State Parliament May Elect Ypsilanti Prime Minister | ||||
| GE | 4-Nov | German Finance Ministry-led Panel Updates Tax Revenue Forecast | ||||
| 11/3 | IT | OCT | 2:45 | PMI Manufacturing | - - | 44.4 |
| MON | FR | OCT F | 2:50 | PMI Manufacturing | - - | 40.8 |
| GE | OCT F | 2:55 | PMI Manufacturing | - - | 43.3 | |
| UK | OCT | 3:30 | PMI Manufacturing | - - | 41 | |
| BZ | 31-Oct | 4:00 | FGV CPI IPC-S | 0.40% | 0.34% | |
| SA | OCT | 4:00 | Investec PMI | - - | 47 | |
| IN | SEP | Exports YoY% | - - | 27.00% | ||
| IN | SEP | Imports YoY% | - - | 51.00% | ||
| BZ | OCT | 6:30 | PMI Manufacturing | - - | 50.4 | |
| BZ | OCT | 7:00 | Trade Balance (FOB) - Monthly | $1546M | $2762M | |
| BZ | OCT | 7:00 | EXPORTS - US$ million | $19357M | $20025M | |
| BZ | 2-Nov | 7:00 | Trade Balance (FOB) - Weekly | - - | - - | |
| BZ | OCT | 7:00 | IMPORTS - US$ million | $17811M | $17263M | |
| BZ | SEP | CNI Capacity Utilization | - - | 83.50% | ||
| MX | OCT | 10:00 | IMEF Manufacturing Index | - - | 49.5 | |
| MX | OCT | 10:00 | IMEF Non Manufacturing Index | - - | 48 | |
| UK | 3-Nov | 10:00 | King, Darling, Turner to Testify to U.K. Treasury Committee | |||
| IT | OCT | 11:00 | New Car Registrations (YoY) | - - | -5.50% | |
| IT | OCT | 12:00 | Budget Balance | - - | -12.0B | |
| IT | OCT | 12:00 | Budget Balance (Year to date) | - - | -39.4B | |
| JN | SEP | 19:30 | Labor Cash Earnings YoY | - - | -0.30% | |
| NZ | OCT | 20:00 | ANZ Commodity Price | - - | -4.90% | |
| AU | 4-Nov | 21:30 | RBA CASH TARGET | 5.50% | 6.00% | |
| AU | 3-Nov | 21:30 | Reserve Bank's November Interest Rate Decision | |||
| JN | OCT | 23:00 | Vehicle Sales (YoY) | - - | -5.30% | |
| 11/4 | UK | OCT | 3:30 | PMI Construction | - - | 38.8 |
| TUE | SA | OCT | 4:00 | Naamsa Vehicle Sales (Y0Y) | - - | -18.10% |
| UK | 4-Nov | 4:30 | U.K. to Sell 4 3/4 Treasury Gilt 2030 | |||
| BZ | SEP | 5:00 | Industrial Production YoY | - - | 2.00% | |
| BZ | SEP | 5:00 | Industrial Production sa (MoM) | - - | -1.30% | |
| AU | OCT | 16:30 | AiG Performance of Service Index | - - | 44.9 |
Disclaimer: There is a risk of financial loss in futures and options trading. Futures trading is neither easy nor an easy way to make money. It takes hard work to have success. Please use sound money management when trading futures. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing in this newsletter is intended to be a trading recommendation for you to buy or sell futures or options. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Readers are solely responsible for how they use the information in this newsletter.
Source: Moore Research Center, Inc.
| Date | Reports | Expiration & Notice Dates |
|---|---|---|
| 10/30 Thu | 7:30 AM CDT - Chain Deflator-Adv(Q3)
7:30 AM CDT - GDP-Adv(Q3) 7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales 7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly 9:35 AM CDT - EIA Gas Storage 3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply |
FN: Nov Natural Gas(NYM)
LT: Oct Feeder Cattle(CME) Oct Feeder Cattle Options(CME) |
| 10/31 Fri | 7:30 AM CDT - Dairy Products Prices
7:30 AM CDT - Employment Cost Index(Q3) 7:30 AM CDT - Personal Income & Spending(Sep) 8:45 AM CDT - Chicago PMI(Oct) 9:00 AM CDT - Mich Sentiment-Rev(Oct) 2:00 PM CDT - Agricultural Prices |
FN: Nov Soybeans(CBT)
Nov Rough Rice(CBT) Nov Copper(CMX) Nov Platinum(CMX) Nov Palladium(CMX) Nov Silver(CMX) Nov Gold(CMX) LT: Oct Live Cattle(CME) Oct Fed Funds(CBT) Nov Heating Oil(NYM) Nov RB Gasoline(NYM) Nov Lumber Options(CME) |
| 11/03 Mon | 9:00 AM CDT - Construction Spending(Sep)
9:00 AM CDT - ISM Index(Oct) |
FN: Nov Orange Juice(ICE)
|
| 11/04 Tue | 9:00 AM CDT - Factory Orders(Sep)
Auto & Truck Sales |
FN: Nov Heating Oil(NYM)
Nov RB Gasoline(NYM) |
| 11/05 Wed | 7:15 AM CDT - ADP Employment(Oct)
9:00 AM CDT - ISM Services(Oct) 9:35 AM CDT - API & DOE Energy Stats |
|
| 11/06 Thu | 7:30 AM CDT - USDA Weekly Export Sales
7:30 AM CDT - Initial Claims-Weekly 7:30 AM CDT - Productivity-Prel(Q3) 9:35 AM CDT - EIA Gas Storage 3:30 PM CDT - Money Supply |
LT: Nov Orange Juice(ICE)
|
* Please note that the information contained in this letter is intended for clients, prospective clients, and audiences who have a basic understanding, familiarity, and interest in the futures markets.
** The material contained in this letter is of opinion only and does not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
*** This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading!